Weather Situation in the Philippines
June 2012

ENSO-neutral condition still persists in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, although climate indicators continue to show a shift towards warming condition.

The weather systems that affected the country during the month of June were the southwest (SW) monsoon, low pressure areas (LPAs), monsoon trough and the passage of three (3) tropical cyclones, namely: TY "Butchoy" (June 14-18), TS "Carina" (June 20) and TS "Dindo" (June 26-29). TS "Carina" did a brief passage, northwest of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and had no significant effect to any part of the country. The passage of TY "Butchoy" and TS "Dindo" enhanced the SW monsoon and brought moderate to heavy rains over the western sections of northern, central and southern Luzon. This caused several flooding and landslide incidents in Ilocos Region, Cagayan Valley, Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR) and Central Luzon, resulting to the loss of lives and damage to infrastructures and agriculture (NDRRMC Report).

Assessment of rainfall distribution for the month indicates above normal condition in most areas of northern and central Luzon, while some areas in the eastern section experienced near to below normal rainfall values. In Metro Manila and Palawan, near normal rainfall condition was noted while below normal condition was observed over southern Tagalog region including Bicol region and some areas of Visayas. Bigger portion of Mindanao observed below normal rainfall condition, except Agusan province and most areas of southern Mindanao where near normal rainfall condition was noted.

Slightly cooler than average air temperature was noted in most parts of Luzon, Visayas and mountainous area of Mindanao while the rest of Mindanao experienced slightly warmer than average air temperature. Average ranges of temperature over the archipelago were as follows: 15°C to 23°C over the mountainous areas of Luzon, 23°C to 32°C over rest of Luzon, 23°C to 32°C in the Visayas region, 23°C to 32°C over the lowland areas of Mindanao and 18°C to 29°C over the mountainous areas of Mindanao.

Weather Outlook
July 2012

Most dynamical climate models suggest the likely development of El Niņo condition during the July-August-September season, considering the probability of the current slight warming to persist in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.

The weather systems likely to affect the country in July are the southwest monsoon, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), LPAs and two (2) or three (3) tropical cyclones in the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). The passage of tropical cyclones will enhance the SW monsoon and may bring heavy rains particularly over the western sections of the country. The whole country will likely experience near normal rainfall condition. Occurrence of flashflood and landslides over low lying areas and mountainous regions are possible.

Surface air temperatures is expected to be slightly warmer than average in most parts of the country. Predicted average ranges of temperature will be as follows: 16°C to 27°C over the mountainous areas of Luzon, 24°C to 32°C for the rest of Luzon, 25°C to 32°C over the Visayas, 18°C to 30°C over the mountainous areas of Mindanao, and 24°C to 33°C for the rest of Mindanao.

PAGASA will continue to monitor the day-to-day rainfall/weather conditions and the large-scale climatic patterns that will affect the country. Meanwhile, the public is advised to take precautionary measures against floods and rain-induced landslides particularly over the western sections of the country as the SW monsoon prevails.