The Impact Assessment and Applications Section (IAAS) of Climatology and Agrometeorology Division (CAD) regularly issue this monthly/bulletin which will provide users such as food security managers, economic policy makers, agricultural statisticians and agricultural extension officials with qualitative information on the current and potential effects of climate and weather variability on rainfed crops, particularly rice and corn. This bulletin, entitled “Climate Impact Assessment for Agriculture in the Philippines”, represents a method for converting meteorological data into economic information that can be used as supplement to information from other available sources.
For example, an agricultural statistician or economist involved in crop production and yield forecast problems can combine the assessment with analysis from area survey results, reports on the occurrence of pests and diseases, farmers’ reports and other data sources.
The impact assessments are based on agroclimatic indices derived from historical rainfall data recorded for the period 1951 to the present. The indices, expressed in raw values percent of normals and percentile ranks, together with real time meteorological data (monthly rainfall, in percent of normal), percent of normal cumulative rainfall, as well as the occurrence of significant event such as typhoons, floods and droughts are the tools used in the assessment of crop performance. Crop reports from PAGASA field stations are also helpful.
The narrative impact assessment included in the bulletin depicts the regional performance of upland, 1st lowland and 2nd lowland palay; and dry and wet season corn crops, depending on the period or the season. Tabulated values of normal rainfall and generalized monsoon and yield moisture indices are provided for ready reference. Spatial analysis of rainfall, percent of normal rainfall and the generalized monsoon indices in percentile ranks are also presented on maps to help users visualize any unusual weather occurring during the period. The generalized monsoon indices in particular, are drought indicators; hence, the tables (see Appendices) together with the threshold values can be used in assessing drought impact, if there are any. It also helps assess any probable crop failure.
It is hoped therefore that this bulletin would help provide the decision-makers, planners and economist with timely and reliable early warning/information on climatic impact including the potential for subsistence food shortfalls, thereby enabling them to plan alternate cropping, if possible, food assistance strategies/mitigation measures to reduce the adverse impact of climate and eventually improve disaster preparedness.
Impact assessment for other principal crops such as sugarcane and coconut, for energy and for water resources management, are from time to time will be included in the forthcoming issues of this bulletin.
The IAAS of CAD will appreciate suggestions/comments from end-users and interested parties for the improvement of this bulletin.Definition of Terms
The Generalized Monsoon Index (GMI) helps determine the performance of the rains during the season and serves as a good indicator of potential irrigation supplies. It is a tool used to assess rainfed crops.
The GMI for the southwest monsoon (GMIsw) in an area during June to September is defined as follows:
The GMI for the northeast monsoon (GMIne) in an area during October to January is defined as:
The Yield Moisture Index (YMI) is a simple index that helps the users assess agroclimatic crop conditions during the crop season. The YMI for a particular crop is defined as follows:
AGROCLIMATIC / CROP CONDITION ASSESSMENT
In most parts of the country, harvesting of July-planted 1st lowland palay has just begun, good to normal yield is expected in the areas of CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Masbate, Central Visayas, Zamboanga del sur, Northern Mindanao, and Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM). In contrast, below normal yield is anticipated in most of Ilocos Region, Cordillera Administrative Region(CAR), Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon, Negros Island Region, and Panay Island.
Assessment of rainfall for the month showed that near to below normal rainfall conditions were experienced in most parts of the country, except for Romblon, western Panay Island, Eastern Samar, and Sulu Archipelago which received below to way below normal rainfall.
The weather systems that affected the country during the month were the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ), southwest (SW) monsoon, low pressure areas (LPAs), easterlies and the passage of four (4) tropical cyclones (TCs). These TCs were Typhoon (TY) ”Igme” (Oct 1-3), Tropical Storm (TS) “Julian” (Oct 4-6), TY “Karen” (Oct 12-16), and Super Typhoon (STY) “Lawin”) with tracks over northern Luzon that brought moderate to occasionally heavy rains and thunderstorms along their path. Notably, STY “Lawin” is the first tropical cyclone of its category to be recorded in the Philippines based on the new PAGASA Tropical Cyclone Warning System (TCWS). Latest reports confirm damages in both agriculture and infrastructure at about Php 3.73 billion along with declaration of state of calamity in many areas in northern Luzon (NDRRMC Situation report No. 9).
|REGION I (Ilocos Region)
The generally stormy weather which prevailed over the Ilocos region is not favorable for the harvesting of July-planted lowland palay. Likewise, a decrease in yield of rice crops this season is expected due to windy conditions experienced by the crops, particularly in those in the maturing stage.
CAR (Cordillera Autonomous Region)
The maturing July-planted lowland palay, harvestable during the month, is affected by the strong winds brought by TY ”Lawin” passing across the region upon exiting. Below normal yield is anticipated.
REGION II ( Cagayan Valley)
The harvestable July-planted lowland palay, which were in good crop conditions on the previous month, were devastated by strong winds brought by typhoon “Lawin”. The leads to a reduction in the expected yield.
REGION III (Central Luzon)
Harvesting of July-planted lowland palay now begun in Zambales and Cabanatuan. Below normal yield is anticipated due to water logging experienced by the crops during the reproductive stage of growth
REGION IV-A (CALABARZON)
Harvesting of July late-planted lowland 1st palay has just started in Tayabas and Batangas Yield is anticipated to be good because crops experienced favorable conditions during the reproductive stage of growth and development.
REGION IV-B (MIMAROPA)
The harvestable July-planted lowland palay showed good crop condition in most parts of the region, as evident on the percentile rank. Good to normal yield is anticipated during the season.
REGION V (Bicol Region)
Harvesting of July-planted 1st lowland palay in Masbate had just begun. Good to normal yield may be expected because crops experienced sufficient moisture from planting to maturity.
REGION VI (Western Visayas)
Harvesting of July-planted lowland palay is on-going across the region. Below normal yield is expected because crops experienced moisture stress, although the crops recovered in their reproductive stage
|REGION VII (Central Visayas)
Harvesting of July-planted lowland palay is starting in most parts of the region: good to normal yield is anticipated due to sufficient moisture and favorable weather experienced by the crops during the critical stage of growth.
REGION VIII (Eastern Visayas)
Good to normal yield is expected in harvestable July-planted lowland palay in Tacloban. This is due to sufficient moisture and good crop conditions in the entire growing season. On the other hand, in Catbalogan, below normal yield is estimated because crops experienced slight moisture stress during the flowering stage.
REGION IX (Zamboanga Peninsula)
Harvesting of July-planted 1st lowland palay in Zamboanga del Sur is now in progress: yield is predicted to be good due to adequate moisture experienced by the crops during the critical stage of growth.
REGION X (Northern Mindanao)
Near normal harvest of July-planted lowland Palay is expected in the region due to relatively sufficient moisture that favored the crops during the entire growing period.
REGION XI (Davao Region)
Sun drying and stocking of post-harvested, late-planted upland palay has already occurred for a week or two. These activities were favored by the good weather that prevailed during the month.
REGION XII (SOCCSKSARGEN)
The accumulated rainfall during the month is better than previous months, but still inadequate for farming activities to commence.
REGION XIII (CARAGA Region)
The good weather during the month favored the sun-drying and stocking activities for the post-harvested, June-planted lowland palay which completed days ago.
ARMM ((Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao)
Harvesting of July-planted lowland palay has now begun: yield is estimated to be near-normal to normal because of the sufficient moisture received by the crops from planting to maturity.
For Particulars, please contact:
THELMA A. CINCO
Impact Assessment and Applications Section (IAAS)
Climatology and Agrometeorology Division (CAD)
Telefax No.: 434-58-82