Gale Warning
Issued at: 5:00 PM TODAY , 09 April 2018
Gale Warning # 7 (Final)
For: moderate to strong WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHEASTerly windflow.

Gale Warning in PDF file





Dams Water Level Update
As of 6 AM, 26 SEPTEMBER 2017

General Flood Advisories - Regional
Issued as of 7AM 07 August 2017


Daily Basin Hydrological Forecast
Issued 21 FEBRUARY 2017




Monthly Climate Assessment and Outlook

Issued: 05 June 2017

Monthly Rainfall Forecast
RAINFALL FORECAST  (October 2017 - March 2018) 
UPDATED: 20 September 2017 (next update October 2017)


Regional Rainfall Forecast
Issued: 20 September 2017
Valid for: October 2017 - March 2018
Farm Weather Forecast and Advisories
ISSUED              : 8AM, THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 7, 2017
VALID UNTIL      :  8AM, FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 8, 2017
FWFA:  N0. 17-251

Ten-Day Regional Agri-Weather Information
DEKAD NO. 25 SEPTEMBER 1-10, 2017

PHILIPPINE AGRI-WEATHER FORECAST
The weather systems that will affect the whole country are southwest monsoon, intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and low pressure area (LPA).
Seasonal Climate Outlook
Issued:  06 July 2017
FOR July - December 2017
PDF




Astronomical Diary
Issued for April 2018
The Lyrids meteor shower has been observed for more than 2,600 years...




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Overview

Based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007b), changes in climate patterns are projected to have a number of impacts including possible water shortages, decreased agricultural production, and food insecurity. With these considerations, a joint project undertaking was forged between the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), the FAO-AMICAF (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations), and University of Cantabria in Spain. The project aims to assess vulnerability of households to food insecurity through the use of a tool called MOSAICC (Modelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change). Ultimately, climate information generated from the project can be used to provide relevant and updated climate information for national socioeconomic policy making.

The work plan was implemented through a series of workflow wherein PAGASA undertook the first step of the work plan which is the climate scenario downscaling. Global climate models (GCMs) were statistically downscaled at station level under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3). These GCMs are BCM2, CNCM3, and MPEH5.

Results of climate projections are provided in two time period: historical climate (1971-2000) and future climate (2011-2040) using two Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES): A1B (medium-range) and A2 (high-range). SRES are based on projected greenhouse gases emissions in future years.

There are three seasonal variables available for download : precipitation, minimum temperature, and maximum temperature. Season is defined as an average of three-month values: DJF (December-January-February), MAM (March, April, May), JJA (June, July, August), and SON (September-October-November).

A technical note to you understand our products is also available for download via this link .

NOTE: Kindly refer to this article for citation of methodology.

References

(2014). Assessments of Climate Change Impacts and Mapping of Vulnerability to Food Insecurity under Climate Change to Strengthen Household Food Security with Livelihoods’ Adaptation Approaches (AMICAF): Project Terminal Report. Submitted to Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Country Office in the Philippines. Quezon City: DOST-PAGASA.

Basconcillo, J., A. Lucero, A. Solis, R. Sandoval, Jr., E. Bautista, T. Koizumi, and H. Kanamaru, 2016: Statistically downscaled projected changes in Seasonal Mean Temperature and Rainfall in Cagayan Valley, Philippines. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan94A, 151-164.

IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

Lucero, A., Basconcillo, J., Solis, A., Kanamaru, H., Bautista, E., Sandoval, R., Hilario, S., Juanillo, E., (2014). Recent Projected Changes (2011-2040) in Seasonal Mean Temperature and Rainfall in the Philippines. Paper presented at the 3rd National Climate Conference. Manila, Philippines.

Manzanas, R., Brands, S., San-Martin, D., Lucero, A., Limbo, C., Gutierrez, J. (2015) Statistical Downscaling in the Tropics is Sensitive to Reanalysis Choice. Journal of Climate., Vol. 28, 4171-4184



PUBLIC WARNING 


It has come to the attention of the Office of the Administrator of PAGASA that a certain person has been using the name of Dr. Vicente B. Malano to solicit money from the contractors of PAGASA.

Dr. Malano wishes to inform the public that he has not authorized anyone to solicit money on his behalf and to warn everyone against dealing with unscrupulous activities of certain individuals.




payong pagasa on android The latest version of the official PAGASA app can now be downloaded on Google play store

Weather Division is now  ISO 9001:2008 Certified
Proof has been furnished by means of an audit that the requirements of ISO 9001:2008 are met.

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